90th Academy Award Nomination Predictions

The 90th Annual Academy Award nominees are to be announced on Tuesday morning at 8:22am EST/5:22 am PST. Before the big day comes, I thought it would be fun for me to share my predictions for what will end up being nominated, the films and performances that could potentially surprise, and what should be considered but probably won’t stand much a chance. I’ll be providing my in-depth thoughts for the following categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Animated Feature. However, I’ll be listing my predictions for all 24 categories. So with that all out of the way, let’s begin!

getout

BEST PICTURE:

Leading up to nomination day, some other major award shows and guilds have given their nominations, some already presenting their winners. At the Golden Globes, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “Lady Bird” both won Best Picture, the former for Drama and the latter for Comedy/Musical while the Critics Choice Awards gave their Best Picture prize to “The Shape of Water” instead. All of these films managed to get nominations at the Producers Guild of America along with other awards hopefuls like “Get Out,” “I, Tonya,” “The Big Sick,” “Call Me By Your Name,” and “Dunkirk” with only the final two of those films also snagging BAFTA nominations for Best Film. One of the big question marks in this race is “The Florida Project” which hasn’t gotten any major Best Picture nominations outside of critic groups, but neither did A24’s “Room” from a few years ago. Could the passionate critical response push that film into the Best Picture category at the Oscars? I’m not so sure. In addition, “The Post” has garnered some buzz, but failed to get major wins at both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice.

Predicted Nominees:
“The Big Sick”
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“I, Tonya”
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Potential Spoilers:
“The Florida Project”
“The Post”
“Darkest Hour”

Should Be Considered:
“Phantom Thread”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Coco”

guillermodeltoro

BEST DIRECTOR:

The Directors Guild of America lineup seems so rock solid that it’s hard to argue that we’ll see any change when the Oscar nominations are announced. Guillermo del Toro is the obvious frontrunner with Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins and a BAFTA nomination. Christopher Nolan has been long overdue for his first directing nomination, particularly since the glaring snub for his work on “Inception” back in 2010. Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele both have a lot of critical support for their incredible breakthroughs as directors while Martin McDonagh is likely to get the nomination as “Three Billboards” is one of the big frontrunners for the Best Picture award. That being said, the DGA lineup hasn’t matched with the Oscars since 2009 and there’s usually a major surprise nomination (Michael Haneke for “Amour,” Behn Zeitlin for “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” Lenny Abrahamson for “Room,” and Mel Gibson for “Hacksaw Ridge” are just a few examples). Could Luca Guadagnino or Sean Baker shock and take one of the spots? Maybe, but it’s really hard to imagine who in this lineup gets swapped out.

Predicted Nominees:
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Potential Spoilers:
Luca Guadagnino, “Call Me By Your Name”
Sean Baker, “The Florida Project”

Should Be Considered:
Denis Villeneuve, “Blade Runner 2049”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”

dh

BEST ACTOR:

This category is in the midst of some controversy at the moment with one of the actors who was thought to be a sure bet for a nomination. Late last week following his Golden Globe win and just hours before his Critics Choice win for his performance in “The Disaster Artist,” the LA Times reported that “five women accuse actor James Franco of inappropriate or sexually exploitative behavior.” The problem is that this news broke with only a couple of days left in voting for the nominees and apparently many Academy voters had already submitted their ballots. That being said, there’s still potential that there were enough late voters who saw the Times piece and excluded him from their ballots. The other contenders that seem to be in contention for a substitution are SAG and Golden Globe nominee Denzel Washington for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” and Globe nominee Tom Hanks for “The Post.” While the statistics say that the odds are in favor of Washington being the replacement, his film wasn’t well received and failed at the box office while “The Post” is an undeniably stronger awards contender.” For the time being, I’m going to take the risk and say that Franco doesn’t get nominated and, to be honest, regardless of how I felt about the performance and “The Disaster Artist” overall, it would be for the best that he not to be on the list.

Predicted Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Tom Hanks, “The Post”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Potential Spoilers:
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Should Be Considered:
Andy Serkis, “War for the Planet of the Apes”
Kumail Nanjiani, “The Big Sick”

tboem

BEST ACTRESS:

2017 was an incredible year for actresses as five Best Picture contenders are led by women in challenging, moving roles. For a while, it seemed near impossible to determine who would be the frontrunner to win as all the contenders were so strong. That being said, it’s particularly disappointing that Brooklynn Prince’s extraordinary work in “The Florida Project” won’t even come close to getting a nomination as she delivered a performance far beyond her years. But hey, at least this year Meryl Streep is actually deserving of a nomination unlike last year when she stole a spot from Amy Adams.

Predicted Nominees:
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Potential Spoilers:
Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”

Should Be Considered:
Brooklynn Prince, “The Florida Project”
Vicky Krieps, “Phantom Thread”

tboemsam

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

There’s probably no other category as stacked and unpredictable as Best Supporting Actor this year. Early on, it seemed like a sure bet that Willem Dafoe would be the frontrunner to win, but Sam Rockwell has swooped in and become a heavy favorite after winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. In addition, both “Call Me By Your Name” supporting actors Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg have had inconsistent runs that particularly took a hit after both missing out on SAG and BAFTA nominations. On top of that, a late breaking dark horse in this race is Christopher Plummer, who famously came in at quite literally the last minute to replace disgraced actor Kevin Spacey in reshoots for “All the Money in the World” which payed off immensely as his performance is terrific. At the moment, I’m going to continue having hope that Stuhlbarg gets enough love for his beautiful role, but it could very easily go to Hammer or Rockwell’s “Three Billboards” costar, Woody Harrelson.

Predicted Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me By Your Name”

Potential Spoilers:
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”

Should Be Considered:
Ray Romano, “The Big Sick”
Patrick Stewart, “Logan”

itonyajanney

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

The Best Supporting Actress category is about as weak as the Best Actress category is strong. Aside from sure bets Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney, there doesn’t really seem to be much of a threat to upset either performance despite strong performances from Holly Hunter and Lesley Manville. Mary J. Blige and Hong Chau have gotten some significant nominations, but neither performance really feels worthy of a nomination, Chau in particular being a huge question mark for me as I personally found her performance to be shockingly bad. If only Tiffany Haddish had a true shot at surprising here Melissa McCarthy-style.

Predicted Nominees:
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Potential Spoilers:
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”

Should Be Considered:
Tiffany Haddish, “Girls Trip”
Bria Vinaite, “The Florida Project”

ldb

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Four out of the five slots for Best Original Screenplay feel safe and secure with “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “The Shape of Water,” and “Three Billboards.” The big question is what takes that fifth slot between three films. Between the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and WGA, each of these films missed two nominations while getting the other two: “The Big Sick” got Critics Choice and WGA, “I, Tonya” got BAFTA and WGA, and “The Post” got Golden Globes and Critics Choice. At the moment, I’m going to lean towards “The Big Sick” edging out the other two films as it seems like the one to be praised the most for its writing over the other two. That being said, this is an incredibly tight race for that final spot.

Predicted Nominees:
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Potential Spoilers:
“I, Tonya”
“The Post”

Should Be Considered:
“The Florida Project”
“Phantom Thread”

cmbyn3

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

I mean, let’s be honest. This category is basically “Call Me By Your Name” with everything else miles behind it. Not to knock the other screenplays in contention as they’re all very well written. But nothing really comes close to being as beautifully constructed as a narrative as “Call Me By Your Name.” I will say, though, that I feel people are sleeping on “The Lost City of Z” surprising with a nomination in this category after a nomination at the USC Scripter Awards. It’s certainly possible to sneak in over WGA nominee “Logan.”

Predicted Nominees:
“Call Me By Your Name”
“The Disaster Artist”
“The Lost City of Z”
“Molly’s Game”
“Mudbound”

Potential Spoilers:
“Logan”
“Wonder”

Should Be Considered:
“Blade Runner 2049”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

coco2

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

It would have seemed like a sick joke if you told me a year ago that “The Boss Baby” would receive a Best Animated Feature nomination over “The Lego Batman Movie.” But alas, here we are. After Globe, PGA, and Annie nominations, it looks like Alec Baldwin’s trippy talking baby movie will get in. Not that it matters anyway as Pixar probably already received their Oscar in the mail for “Coco.”

Predicted Nominees:
“The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco”
“Loving Vincent”
“Mary and the Witch’s Flower”

Potential Spoilers:
“The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales”
“The Lego Batman Movie”

Should Be Considered:
“My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea”
“Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie”

wp-image-572454923

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Predicted Nominees:
“A Fantastic Woman”
“Foxtrot”
“In The Fade”
“Loveless”
“The Square

Potential Spoilers:
“The Wound”
“The Insult”

Should Be Considered:
“Raw”
“Thelma”

fp

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Predicted Nominees:
“City of Ghosts”
“Faces Places”
“Icarus”
“Jane”
“Last Men in Aleppo”

tsow2

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Predicted Nominees:
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water”

Potential Spoilers:
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“The Post”

Should Be Considered:
“War for the Planet of the Apes”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

coco4

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Predicted Nominees:
“Evermore,” “Beauty and the Beast”
“Mystery of Love,” “Call Me By Your Name”
“Remember Me,” “Coco”
“This Is Me,” “The Greatest Showman”
“Mighty River,” “Mudbound”

Potential Spoilers:
“Stand Up For Something,” “Marshall”
“Prayers for This World,” “Cries From Syria”

Should Be Considered:
“Visions of Gideon,” “Call Me By Your Name”
“Days in the Sun,” “Beauty and the Beast”

dk

BEST FILM EDITING:

Predicted Nominees:
“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Potential Spoilers:
“I, Tonya”
“Lady Bird”

Should Be Considered:
“The Florida Project”
“Good Time”

br2049

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Predicted Nominees:
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”

Potential Spoilers:
“Mudbound”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Should Be Considered:
“The Florida Project”
“Get Out”

tsowrich

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Predicted Nominees:
“Beauty and the Beast”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“Murder on the Orient Express”
“The Shape of Water”

Potential Spoilers:
“Phantom Thread”
“Darkest Hour”

Should Be Considered:
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

ptcostumes

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Predicted Nominees:
“Beauty and the Beast”
“The Greatest Showman”
“I, Tonya”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water”

Potential Spoilers:
“Darkest Hour”
“Victoria & Abdul”

Should Be Considered:
“The Beguiled”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

wonder

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:

Predicted Nominees:
“Darkest Hour”
“I, Tonya”
“Wonder”

Potential Spoilers:
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Bright”

Should Be Considered:
“It”
“The Shape of Water”

bd

BEST SOUND EDITING:

Predicted Nominees:
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Potential Spoilers:
“Wonder Woman”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

Should Be Considered:
“Get Out”
“It”

dunkirk

BEST SOUND MIXING:

Predicted Nominees:
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Potential Spoilers:
“The Greatest Showman”
“Wonder Woman”

Should Be Considered:
“Get Out”
“It”

wftpota

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Predicted Nominees:
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“Okja”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

Potential Spoilers:
“The Shape of Water”
“Kong: Skull Island”

Should Be Considered:
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets”

alone

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:

Predicted Nominees:
“Alone”
“Edith+Eddie”
“Heroin(e)”
“116 Cameras”
“Ten Meter Tower”

iah

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:

Predicted Nominees:
“Cradle”
“Dear Basketball”
“In a Heartbeat”
“Lou”
“Negative Space”

dke

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:

Predicted Nominees:
“DeKalb Elementary”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“Rise of a Star”
“The Silent Child”
“Watu Wote: All of Us”

So if this ends up being the lineup of Oscar nominees, that will mean that the following films will get multiple nominations:
“The Shape of Water” – 13 Nominations
“Dunkirk” – 9 Nominations
“Blade Runner 2049” – 6 Nominations
“Call Me By Your Name” – 6 Nominations
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – 6 Nominations
“Get Out” – 5 Nominations
“I, Tonya” – 5 Nominations
“Lady Bird” – 5 Nominations
“Darkest Hour” – 4 Nominations
“Phantom Thread” – 4 Nominations
“Baby Driver” – 3 Nominations
“Beauty and the Beast” – 3 Nominations
“The Big Sick” – 3 Nominations
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” – 3 Nominations
“Coco” – 2 Nominations
“The Florida Project” – 2 Nominations
“The Greatest Showman” – 2 Nominations
“Mudbound” – 2 Nominations
“The Post” – 2 Nominations

What do you think will be nominated at this year’s Academy Awards? Do you think I’m way off on some of my predictions? Leave a comment down below with your predictions and let me know what you think.

I have reviews for the following films mentioned here. I’ll also be writing reviews for whatever films get nominated for Best Picture that I haven’t reviewed yet.
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Coco”
“Murder on the Orient Express”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (SPOILER-FREE)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (SPOILER-FILLED)
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

If you want to stay updated with all my reviews of films as soon as I see them, follow me on my Letterboxd.

Thanks for reading!

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